San Francisco: Rising from the Ashes of the “Doom Loop”

San Francisco, a city once viewed as an emblem of American collapse, is now showing signs of resurgence¹. The city’s journey through the “doom loop” has been a topic of intense discussion, with various factions offering their perspectives¹.

The Doom Loop

The term “doom loop” was popularized by Arpit Gupta, a finance professor at NYU, in a paper he wrote about the consequences for American downtowns of workers remaining remote². In the context of San Francisco, it refers to the declining commercial real estate value as most employees work from home³.

The doom loop was characterized by an exodus of office workers and retailers, battles over housing shortages, surging drug-overdose deaths, and an alarming increase in theft on downtown streets¹. As the pandemic receded, nearly a quarter of offices downtown were reported to be vacant, the worst rate in the nation¹.

Turning the Corner

Despite these challenges, there are signs that San Francisco is turning the corner. The city’s broad project of urban renewal has been widely shared. Since the end of the industrial period, San Francisco has excelled at transforming old frameworks into beautiful, dynamic settings for prosperous middle-class life¹.

The city invested in lush, landscaped parks, tree-lined boulevards, and world-class museums where there had been none. It grew rich and seemed to climb out of the Great Recession with both influence and a mandate¹. And with the growing investment in AI, San Francisco is experiencing an upswing.

The Road Ahead

In conclusion, while San Francisco has faced significant challenges in recent years, there are signs that it is turning the corner. The city’s resilience and commitment to urban renewal suggest that it can emerge from this doom loop stronger than ever before.